The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 52.60%1.90fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.64%52.62%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.811.811.8356.82%55.37%55.25%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Yankees (Visit)

Prediction 47.40%2.11fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%47.36%47.38%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0652.36%50.16%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 52.60%; New York Yankees (Visit): 47.40%. For New York Yankees (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -2.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.20%E -2.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.20%E -2.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 15:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.20%E -2.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 12:15
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-17 15:55
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.26%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.26%E -2.11%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 14:40
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.26%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.26%E -2.11%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.26%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.26%E -2.11%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.26%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.20%E -2.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 12:10
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -2.36%E -1.15%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.83%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 12:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.26%E -2.11%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 12:45
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.20%E -2.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 12:10
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.57%E -3.88%K -7.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 16:05
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.57%E -3.88%K -7.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 12:14
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.89%E -3.90%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.57%E -3.88%K -7.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 12:50
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.76%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -6.63%E -3.36%K -6.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 14:59
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.76%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -6.63%E -3.36%K -6.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%2.0%2026-03-17 16:55
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-03-17 16:55
Novig◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%4.1%2026-03-17 17:00