The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Rays v Minnesota Twins

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 46.88%2.13fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +2.62%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%46.56%47.06%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.022.2051.28%48.71%49.50%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Twins (Visit)

Prediction 53.12%1.88fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.44%52.94%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.781.801.8458.48%56.20%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 46.88%; Minnesota Twins (Visit): 53.12%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +3.14%E +1.43%K +2.62%G +0.082%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -9.17%E -5.36%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +3.14%E +1.43%K +2.62%G +0.082%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -9.17%E -5.36%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 17:00
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.55%E -0.737%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.98%E -3.38%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 17:00
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.55%E -0.737%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.98%E -3.38%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 13:50
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.55%E -0.737%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -7.04%E -4.02%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 12:30
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.55%E -0.737%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -7.04%E -4.02%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 12:30
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.55%E -0.737%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -9.17%E -5.36%K -12.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 16:59
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.89%E -1.90%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.39%E -2.44%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 13:40
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -5.30%E -2.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -2.26%E -1.23%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 16:44
MyBookie.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.30%E -2.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.86%E -2.13%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 14:39
Bovada🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -5.77%E -2.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -2.79%E -1.53%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 16:30
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.79%E -1.53%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 13:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.79%E -1.53%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 13:25
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.39%E -2.44%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 13:25
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.57%E -4.35%K -10.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 16:40
ReBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.58%E -4.40%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.39%E -2.44%K -5.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 16:10
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.58%E -4.40%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.39%E -2.44%K -5.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-03-21 17:00
ProphetX◎2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%2.5%2026-03-21 16:54
Novig◎2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%3.7%2026-03-21 16:59