The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tampa Bay Rays v Detroit Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 57.83%1.73fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.19%57.64%57.96%58.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.661.651.7061.35%60.10%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 42.17%2.37fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%42.36%42.04%43.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.252.3146.51%44.54%44.44%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 57.83%; Detroit Tigers (Visit): 42.17%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -1.68%E -0.989%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 17:19
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -1.68%E -0.989%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.26%E -1.34%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 17:43
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -2.60%E -1.12%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-28 17:44
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 17:44
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 17:43
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.57%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.34%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 17:44
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.73%E -3.51%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.