The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 50.98%1.96fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.08%51.05%51.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.851.871.9055.87%53.94%53.48%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 49.02%2.04fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.12%48.92%48.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.941.9553.48%51.84%51.41%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 50.98%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 49.02%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.90, with an expected value of -3.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.13%E -1.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.41%E -2.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-05 18:00
FanDuel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.15%E -2.21%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.90%E -2.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.66%E -2.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.41%E -2.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 15:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.66%E -2.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.41%E -2.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.66%E -2.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.41%E -2.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.66%E -2.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.41%E -2.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 15:24
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.66%E -2.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.34%E -4.46%K -9.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 13:10
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.08%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.34%E -4.46%K -9.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 16:30
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -8.74%E -4.88%K -11.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -5.39%E -2.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-05 16:30
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -8.74%E -4.88%K -11.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -5.39%E -2.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-05 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-03-05 18:00
Novig◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.13%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.87%2.8%2026-03-05 17:40