The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 56.35%1.77fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.27%56.48%56.37%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.691.7460.61%59.10%59.00%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 43.65%2.29fair odd
EV +0.394%
Edge +0.171%
Kelly +0.303%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%43.52%43.63%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.192.3047.62%45.77%45.66%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Louis Cardinals (Local): 56.35%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 43.65%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.394%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -7.02%E -4.26%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV +0.394%E +0.171%K +0.303%G +0.001%4.1%2026-03-01 17:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.64%E -2.13%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.97%E -1.81%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-01 12:09
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.20%E -2.47%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.97%E -1.81%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 17:53
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.89%E -3.53%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.97%E -1.81%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 17:39
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.89%E -3.53%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.97%E -1.81%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 01:19
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.77%E -2.82%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.84%E -2.22%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 00:33
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -3.64%E -2.13%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.72%E -2.65%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 17:19
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -3.64%E -2.13%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.72%E -2.65%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.95%E -1.12%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.15%E -2.86%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-01 17:49
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.89%E -3.53%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.34%E -3.97%K -7.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-03-01 17:45
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-03-01 17:55