The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Seattle Mariners v San Diego Padres

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 48.53%2.06fair odd
EV -0.023%
Edge -0.011%
Kelly -0.022%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.35%48.28%48.44%49.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.981.962.0652.36%50.61%50.89%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 51.47%1.94fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%51.72%51.56%53.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.841.851.8856.50%54.50%54.05%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 48.53%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 51.47%. For Seattle Mariners (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.0605. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.0600, with an expected value of -0.023%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -0.023%E -0.011%K -0.022%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -8.39%E -4.71%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 19:55
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -0.023%E -0.011%K -0.022%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -8.39%E -4.71%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -3.91%E -1.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -3.76%E -2.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.91%E -1.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.79%E -2.59%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-05 19:35
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.91%E -1.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.79%E -2.59%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-05 16:35
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.76%E -2.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 16:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.76%E -2.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 16:25
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -5.36%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -8.90%E -5.03%K -11.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 19:50
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -5.85%E -3.01%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -3.24%E -1.72%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 16:29
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.30%E -3.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.81%E -3.18%K -7.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-03-05 19:55
Novig◎1.97I 50.76%NM 49.23%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.77%3.1%2026-03-05 20:05