The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 55.23%1.81fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%55.19%55.33%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.741.7760.61%57.87%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles Angels (Visit)

Prediction 44.77%2.23fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%44.81%44.67%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.152.1750.00%46.97%46.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 55.23%; Los Angeles Angels (Visit): 44.77%. For Seattle Mariners (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -2.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.24%E -1.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-03 19:50
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.24%E -1.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -3.90%E -2.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50%EV -2.85%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-03 20:01
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.90%E -2.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.90%E -2.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.20%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-03 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.90%E -2.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 15:25
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.85%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 18:20
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.85%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 18:20
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.20%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-03 15:25
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.87%E -5.37%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%3.2%2026-03-03 20:05
Novig◎1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%3.3%2026-03-03 19:50