The School of Odds
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Seattle Mariners v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 51.05%1.96fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.17%51.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.851.871.9155.56%53.92%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 48.95%2.04fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.64%48.83%48.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.952.0053.48%51.38%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 51.05%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 48.95%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -2.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.49%E -1.30%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.41%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-10 15:35
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 15:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 15:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 16:29
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 16:30
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 15:35
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.42%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.47%E -4.53%K -9.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 15:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -5.04%E -2.71%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.55%E -2.33%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 15:35
Bovada🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -6.07%E -3.30%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -2.59%E -1.30%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-10 06:06
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -6.07%E -3.30%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -3.08%E -1.56%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 06:13
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.58%E -3.59%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.51%E -3.41%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 16:29
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.58%E -3.59%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.51%E -3.41%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 20:05
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.09%E -3.89%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.10%E -1.05%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 15:10
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.09%E -3.89%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.10%E -1.05%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 15:10
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.11%E -4.50%K -10.13%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.51%E -3.41%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-10 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-03-10 11:09
ProphetX◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.58%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.42%3.4%2026-03-10 19:35
Novig◎1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%5.5%2026-03-10 20:00