The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Seattle Mariners v Colorado Rockies

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 55.23%1.81fair odd
EV -0.581%
Edge -0.323%
Kelly -0.726%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%55.10%55.15%55.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.741.8059.17%57.45%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colorado Rockies (Visit)

Prediction 44.77%2.23fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.04%44.90%44.85%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.112.112.1851.28%47.41%47.39%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 55.23%; Colorado Rockies (Visit): 44.77%. For Seattle Mariners (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -0.581%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.581%E -0.323%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -8.23%E -4.01%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 19:50
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -0.581%E -0.323%K -0.726%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -12.70%E -6.51%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -1.13%E -0.633%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -7.33%E -3.54%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-11 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -1.13%E -0.633%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -7.33%E -3.54%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-11 19:55
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.24%E -1.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 19:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-11 14:15
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-11 15:15
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.20%E -1.96%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-11 15:09
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.09%E -2.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.09%E -2.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 18:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 15:45
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.41%E -1.10%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-11 16:20
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -3.30%E -1.53%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-11 20:04
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 14:10
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-11 15:05
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.30%E -1.53%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 14:10
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.66%E -3.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 19:10
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.66%E -3.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-03-11 20:05
ProphetX◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.08%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.92%2.6%2026-03-11 20:05
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%4.3%2026-03-11 20:05