The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 51.89%1.93fair odd
EV -0.885%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.65%52.00%52.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.851.831.9155.56%54.05%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visit)

Prediction 48.11%2.08fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.913%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.29%48.35%48.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.952.0453.48%51.24%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 51.89%; Cincinnati Reds (Visit): 48.11%. For Seattle Mariners (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -0.885%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.885%E -0.463%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.12%E -4.25%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.885%E -0.463%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.12%E -4.25%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 20:00
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.885%E -0.463%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.12%E -4.25%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 20:00
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.885%E -0.463%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.12%E -4.25%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 20:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -1.40%E -0.739%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -8.12%E -4.25%K -8.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 20:00
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.96%E -1.58%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.19%E -3.17%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 16:50
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -2.96%E -1.58%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -10.04%E -5.37%K -11.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 19:45
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.00%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.23%E -2.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 20:04
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -5.04%E -2.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -1.86%E -0.913%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 20:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.04%E -2.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.79%E -1.89%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 14:19
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.04%E -2.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.79%E -1.89%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 13:05
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.04%E -2.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.23%E -2.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 16:15
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.04%E -2.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.23%E -2.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 16:15
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.79%E -1.89%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 05:55
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.79%E -1.89%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 02:19
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.19%E -3.17%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 19:15
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.19%E -3.17%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 14:00
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.12%E -4.25%K -8.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-03-15 20:00
Novig◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%2.9%2026-03-15 20:05
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.1%2026-03-15 20:05