The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco Giants (Local)

Prediction 60.77%1.65fair odd
EV -0.338%
Edge -0.206%
Kelly -0.528%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.38%60.72%60.72%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.581.581.6464.94%63.25%63.49%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 39.23%2.55fair odd
EV +2.39%
Edge +0.916%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.11%39.28%39.28%41.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.412.6143.48%41.20%41.49%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Francisco Giants (Local): 60.77%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 39.23%. For San Diego Padres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.55. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -6.41%E -4.17%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV +2.39%E +0.916%K +1.49%G +0.036%3.2%2026-03-01 18:14
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.41%E -4.17%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +0.038%E +0.015%K +0.024%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-01 18:54
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -4.59%E -2.92%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -2.32%E -0.930%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-01 19:14
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.20%E -3.33%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.89%E -1.59%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 15:54
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -3.38%E -2.12%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -5.06%E -2.09%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-01 18:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.38%E -2.12%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.85%E -2.44%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 15:54
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.98%E -2.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.85%E -2.44%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 15:55
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.20%E -3.33%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.81%E -3.32%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 19:45
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -0.338%E -0.206%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -9.77%E -4.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 19:45
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -0.338%E -0.206%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -9.77%E -4.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 19:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-03-01 19:30
Novig◎1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%3.9%2026-03-01 18:50