The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Francisco Giants v Cleveland Guardians

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco Giants (Local)

Prediction 59.58%1.68fair odd
EV -0.498%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.743%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.18%59.56%59.30%61.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.601.6763.69%62.15%62.31%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 40.42%2.47fair odd
EV +0.641%
Edge +0.257%
Kelly +0.430%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.77%40.44%40.70%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.362.362.4944.84%42.35%42.37%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Francisco Giants (Local): 59.58%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 40.42%. For Cleveland Guardians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.641%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +0.641%E +0.257%K +0.430%G +0.003%3.1%2026-03-21 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +0.641%E +0.257%K +0.430%G +0.003%3.1%2026-03-21 18:24
Caesars🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +0.236%E +0.095%K +0.160%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 18:23
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -1.38%E -0.566%K -0.959%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 17:59
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -2.19%E -0.904%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 18:24
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.75%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 18:59
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.00%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 18:10
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.00%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 18:24
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.61%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 18:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.61%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 18:28
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.02%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 17:11
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.07%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.42%E -2.32%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 17:09
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.04%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 17:09
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.04%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 17:09
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.07%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.06%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 18:59
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.26%E -3.31%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.06%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -0.498%E -0.298%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -9.87%E -4.43%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 18:59
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -0.498%E -0.298%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -9.87%E -4.43%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%2.1%2026-03-21 18:59
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%3.2%2026-03-21 18:20
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%3.8%2026-03-21 18:59