The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco Giants (Local)

Prediction 53.78%1.86fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.85%54.04%53.53%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.771.8258.48%56.69%56.50%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visit)

Prediction 46.22%2.16fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.770%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%45.96%46.47%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.042.2050.00%48.29%48.90%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Francisco Giants (Local): 53.78%; Cincinnati Reds (Visit): 46.22%. For Cincinnati Reds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +1.69%E +0.770%K +1.41%G +0.024%3.9%2026-03-06 20:00
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -1.08%E -0.505%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-06 19:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.93%E -1.39%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 19:15
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.93%E -1.39%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 19:59
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 19:15
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -2.13%E -1.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -5.70%E -2.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-06 19:30
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.28%E -2.40%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.70%E -2.80%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 19:20
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:05
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.55%E -3.78%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-03-06 19:15
Novig◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%1.8%2026-03-06 19:30