The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Diego Padres v Seattle Mariners

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 47.61%2.10fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.29%47.58%47.64%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0452.36%50.25%50.00%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Seattle Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 52.39%1.91fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.42%52.36%52.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.821.831.8356.50%55.01%54.79%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Padres (Local): 47.61%; Seattle Mariners (Visit): 52.39%. For San Diego Padres (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.04, with an expected value of -2.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-28 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 17:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 16:55
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 18:14
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 16:55
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 15:50
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 15:50
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.70%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 16:55
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.27%E -4.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 18:15
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.