The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Diego Padres v Seattle Mariners

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 19:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 45.86%2.18fair odd
EV +0.885%
Edge +0.402%
Kelly +0.737%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.30%45.76%45.74%47.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.2050.00%47.81%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Seattle Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 54.14%1.85fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.802%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.36%54.24%54.26%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.751.741.8259.52%57.20%57.47%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Padres (Local): 45.86%; Seattle Mariners (Visit): 54.14%. For San Diego Padres (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.885%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.885%E +0.402%K +0.737%G +0.007%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 12:14
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.885%E +0.402%K +0.737%G +0.007%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 12:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.41%E -0.655%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 18:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.41%E -0.655%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 18:45
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.41%E -0.655%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 18:50
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -4.17%E -2.35%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-23 19:05
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.17%E -2.35%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-23 19:05
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.17%E -2.35%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-23 18:49
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.71%E -2.67%K -6.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-23 19:03
MyBookie.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 18:53
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.54%E -1.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-23 16:45
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.17%E -2.35%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 16:44
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-23 18:50
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -8.50%E -5.03%K -12.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-23 19:04
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.29%E -4.14%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.46%E -0.802%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 16:45
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.29%E -4.14%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.17%E -2.35%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-23 16:44
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -8.29%E -4.14%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.79%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-23 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.15I 46.51%NM 45.98%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%1.2%2026-03-23 19:04
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%1.9%2026-03-23 19:04
ProphetX◎2.15I 46.51%NM 45.29%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.71%2.7%2026-03-23 19:05