The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Diego Padres v San Francisco Giants

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 52.41%1.91fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.34%52.22%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.811.831.8757.14%55.15%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Francisco Giants (Visit)

Prediction 47.59%2.10fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%47.66%47.78%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.982.002.0552.36%50.39%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Padres (Local): 52.41%; San Francisco Giants (Visit): 47.59%. For San Diego Padres (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -2.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.00%E -1.07%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.19%E -3.69%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.00%E -1.07%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.19%E -3.69%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 20:00
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.05%E -1.65%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-16 20:00
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.05%E -1.65%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.24%E -3.17%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 19:38
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 19:14
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 17:19
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 16:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.76%E -2.91%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-16 20:05
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.10%E -4.76%K -10.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.14%E -2.84%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.86%E -1.91%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.43%E -1.19%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 15:25
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 15:25
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.24%E -4.09%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 19:15
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.24%E -4.09%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.81%E -2.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 15:25
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.24%E -4.09%K -9.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.19%E -3.69%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 19:15
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -6.24%E -3.17%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 20:05
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -6.24%E -3.17%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-03-16 20:05
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-03-16 19:45
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%4.5%2026-03-16 19:55