The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

San Diego Padres v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 57.31%1.74fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -4.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.35%57.40%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.661.671.6961.73%60.10%59.88%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 42.69%2.34fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.52%42.65%42.60%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.252.3146.51%44.59%44.54%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Padres (Local): 57.31%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 42.69%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.15%E -1.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -5.23%E -2.35%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 00:05
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.15%E -1.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.22%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-13 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.72%E -2.21%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.09%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-13 00:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.72%E -2.21%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.09%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-13 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.72%E -2.21%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.37%E -1.95%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 00:09
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.72%E -2.21%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.08%E -2.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:25
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.72%E -2.21%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.08%E -2.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:25
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.29%E -2.57%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.81%E -0.788%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 21:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.29%E -2.57%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.81%E -0.788%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 21:15
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.29%E -2.57%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.95%E -1.75%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-12 21:39
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.29%E -2.57%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.08%E -2.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 21:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.87%E -2.93%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.37%E -1.95%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 21:15
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -5.44%E -3.30%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -1.39%E -0.600%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-13 00:55
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -5.44%E -3.30%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -3.52%E -1.56%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 21:15
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.44%E -3.30%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.95%E -1.75%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 21:10
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.48%EV -6.01%E -3.67%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -1.39%E -0.600%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 00:58
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.16%E -4.42%K -11.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.08%E -2.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-13 00:39
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.16%E -4.42%K -11.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.08%E -2.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-13 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-03-13 00:50
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-03-13 00:55
Novig◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%1.9%2026-03-13 01:00