The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Diego Padres v Athletics

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 52.64%1.90fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%52.62%52.49%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.801.8557.47%55.68%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletics (Visit)

Prediction 47.36%2.11fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.52%47.38%47.51%48.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.002.002.0551.28%50.00%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Padres (Local): 52.64%; Athletics (Visit): 47.36%. For San Diego Padres (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -2.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.61%E -1.41%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.23%E -3.15%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-02 15:54
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -3.14%E -1.71%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -4.34%E -2.15%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-02 19:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.67%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-02 15:23
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.19%E -2.30%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-02 15:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.25%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.92%E -1.42%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-02 19:49
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.25%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-02 15:24
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.25%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.65%E -3.92%K -8.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-02 19:49
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 17:29
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 16:04
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 16:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.1%2026-03-02 20:04