The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 55.83%1.79fair odd
EV -0.056%
Edge -0.031%
Kelly -0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.87%55.61%55.83%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.711.7960.61%58.58%58.65%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 44.17%2.26fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%44.39%44.17%46.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.2048.78%46.77%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 55.83%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 44.17%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.791. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.790, with an expected value of -0.056%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -0.056%E -0.031%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -7.69%E -3.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-05 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.85%E -1.64%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.04%E -2.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 17:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.85%E -1.64%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.04%E -2.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 16:19
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.85%E -1.64%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.46%E -4.62%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 17:49
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.52%E -2.64%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.04%E -2.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.84%E -1.29%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-05 16:38
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.60%E -2.13%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 16:20
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.04%E -2.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-05 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -5.49%E -2.56%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 16:30
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -5.49%E -2.56%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-03-05 17:50
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-03-05 18:00