The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 58.66%1.70fair odd
EV +2.66%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +3.55%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.01%58.27%59.19%59.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.651.651.7562.89%60.78%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 41.34%2.42fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.40%41.73%40.81%44.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.292.302.3646.73%43.67%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 58.66%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 41.34%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV +2.66%E +1.52%K +3.55%G +0.094%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -11.54%E -5.39%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.03%E -1.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.03%E -1.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.03%E -1.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 16:49
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.03%E -1.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.06%E -4.12%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 16:50
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.62%E -1.58%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 15:19
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.62%E -1.58%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 15:19
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -3.21%E -1.94%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV -5.34%E -2.33%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 16:57
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.97%E -3.07%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.44%E -1.04%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 13:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.97%E -3.07%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.86%E -1.22%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 14:09
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.97%E -3.07%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.86%E -1.22%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 13:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.97%E -3.07%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 16:54
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.55%E -3.45%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.86%E -1.22%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -2.44%E -1.04%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 14:15
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.73%E -4.23%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-03-08 16:19
Novig◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-03-08 16:59