The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 50.79%1.97fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.94%50.92%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.861.871.9156.50%53.70%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 49.21%2.03fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.787%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%49.06%49.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.941.942.0053.48%51.59%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 50.79%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 49.21%. For Boston Red Sox (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.00%E -1.57%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.14%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.00%E -1.57%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.14%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 14:34
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.00%E -1.57%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.14%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 14:39
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.00%E -1.57%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.14%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 16:04
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.00%E -1.57%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.14%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 14:34
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.01%E -2.12%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.02%E -2.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 15:19
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.03%E -2.69%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.03%E -2.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 14:35
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.03%E -2.69%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 16:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.03%E -2.69%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 14:39
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.69%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.97%E -4.26%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 14:35
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.04%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.05%E -1.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 16:44
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.04%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 15:34
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.04%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 15:34
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.04%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 14:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.57%E -0.787%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 14:40
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.00%E -3.14%K -6.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 15:40
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -10.11%E -5.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -1.57%E -0.787%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 14:39
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -10.11%E -5.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -4.03%E -2.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-03-22 17:00
ProphetX◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%2.5%2026-03-22 16:45
Novig◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%4.2%2026-03-22 16:45