The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Pirates v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 54.99%1.82fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%55.15%55.04%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.731.741.7759.17%57.80%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV -0.985%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.821%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%44.85%44.96%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.122.2048.78%47.13%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 54.99%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 45.01%. For Baltimore Orioles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -0.985%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.66%E -1.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.49%E -2.61%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 16:09
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.21%E -1.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.59%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-27 17:59
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.31%E -2.48%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.69%E -1.72%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-27 17:44
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.31%E -2.48%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.59%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-27 17:55
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.31%E -2.48%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.59%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-27 17:54
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.31%E -2.48%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.49%E -2.61%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 15:44
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.41%E -3.15%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.59%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-27 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.96%E -3.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.985%E -0.448%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-27 17:54
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.06%E -4.18%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.24%E -1.50%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-27 17:39
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.06%E -4.18%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.74%E -3.77%K -7.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-27 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.