The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Pirates v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 46.74%2.14fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.21%47.00%46.75%49.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.022.052.0751.81%49.46%48.78%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 53.26%1.88fair odd
EV +0.121%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.137%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.66%53.00%53.25%53.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.801.8857.47%55.62%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 46.74%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 53.26%. For Baltimore Orioles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.878. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.880, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.121%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV +0.121%E +0.064%K +0.137%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 17:00
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV +0.121%E +0.064%K +0.137%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 17:00
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.58%E -2.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.07%E -1.69%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-14 17:00
BetAnything🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.58%E -2.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.07%E -1.69%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-14 15:20
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.24%E -1.56%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 15:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 15:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 14:50
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 15:20
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 12:19
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.85%E -4.54%K -9.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 15:20
Bovada🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -3.71%E -1.80%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.67%E -2.61%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 16:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.20%E -2.92%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 14:44
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.71%E -1.80%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.74%E -3.24%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.74%E -3.24%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:49
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.74%E -3.24%K -7.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 14:50
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.33%E -4.22%K -9.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:10
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.33%E -4.22%K -9.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-03-14 17:00
ProphetX◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.92%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.08%2.7%2026-03-14 16:55
Novig◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%4.0%2026-03-14 16:50