The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 58.35%1.71fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.822%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%58.20%58.38%59.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.641.6964.10%60.90%60.98%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Nationals (Visit)

Prediction 41.65%2.40fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.41%41.80%41.62%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.3046.51%43.88%43.48%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 58.35%; Washington Nationals (Visit): 41.65%. For Philadelphia Phillies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.69, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.39%E -0.822%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -6.29%E -2.79%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-26 17:55
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -1.39%E -0.822%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -10.45%E -4.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-26 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 16:50
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.14%E -1.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.62%E -2.02%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-26 17:10
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.72%E -2.26%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 16:25
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.89%E -3.00%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-26 18:00
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.89%E -3.00%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-26 18:00
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.47%E -3.38%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-26 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.47%E -3.38%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-26 16:50
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.97%E -5.75%K -16.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.