The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 58.36%1.71fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.54%58.48%58.27%60.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.641.651.6763.29%61.04%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 41.64%2.40fair odd
EV +0.768%
Edge +0.317%
Kelly +0.541%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.50%41.52%41.73%42.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4245.45%43.48%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 58.36%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 41.64%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.768%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV +0.768%E +0.317%K +0.541%G +0.004%3.8%2026-03-19 16:44
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -7.79%E -4.93%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV +0.768%E +0.317%K +0.541%G +0.004%4.6%2026-03-19 16:58
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.15%E -0.913%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.15%E -0.913%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 16:59
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.15%E -0.913%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.54%E -1.52%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.23%E -1.84%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-19 13:40
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.54%E -1.52%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.23%E -1.84%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-19 15:24
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.23%E -1.84%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 15:19
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.23%E -1.84%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 16:13
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.46%E -3.37%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.23%E -1.84%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 16:24
MyBookie.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.87%E -2.99%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.06%E -2.22%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 16:24
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.87%E -2.99%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.06%E -2.22%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 16:19
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.12%E -1.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.31%E -2.80%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 14:24
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.12%E -1.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.31%E -2.80%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 14:29
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.31%E -2.80%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 16:59
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.46%E -3.37%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.39%E -3.81%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 16:09
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.04%E -3.75%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.39%E -3.81%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.2%2026-03-19 16:34
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-03-19 16:59
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 59.85%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.15%2.5%2026-03-19 16:59