The School of Odds
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Philadelphia Phillies v New York Yankees

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 56.23%1.78fair odd
EV -0.480%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.623%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.38%56.17%56.33%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.691.7760.61%59.07%59.17%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Yankees (Visit)

Prediction 43.77%2.28fair odd
EV +0.680%
Edge +0.296%
Kelly +0.523%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%43.83%43.67%45.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.3047.62%45.64%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 56.23%; New York Yankees (Visit): 43.77%. For New York Yankees (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.680%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +0.680%E +0.296%K +0.523%G +0.004%3.4%2026-03-10 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +0.680%E +0.296%K +0.523%G +0.004%3.4%2026-03-10 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.51%E -0.671%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-10 16:55
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 16:50
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 16:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.85%E -2.25%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.70%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 11:09
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.70%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.70%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 13:30
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.70%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 13:30
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.70%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.57%E -2.10%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 07:28
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.45%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 15:04
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.17%E -1.25%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.89%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-10 16:09
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.85%E -2.25%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.89%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 07:29
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.98%E -2.95%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.89%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-10 14:55
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.23%E -4.38%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.89%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-10 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -0.480%E -0.271%K -0.623%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -7.64%E -3.62%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 16:20
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-10 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-03-10 17:00
Novig◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%2.3%2026-03-10 17:00
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.95%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.05%2.7%2026-03-10 17:00