The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Philadelphia Phillies v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 63.91%1.56fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.89%63.89%63.97%64.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.491.5469.93%67.43%67.11%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 36.09%2.77fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.22%36.11%36.03%37.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.642.632.6838.46%37.94%37.95%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 63.91%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 36.09%. For Philadelphia Phillies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.54, with an expected value of -1.58%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -1.58%E -1.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-05 17:10
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -5.45%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.49%E -2.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.72%E -1.79%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 16:05
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.13%E -2.76%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 17:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.13%E -2.76%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 15:54
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.41%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.28%E -1.22%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 15:55
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.05%E -4.12%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.36%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 15:55
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.33%E -5.05%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-05 18:00
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -8.61%E -6.02%K -20.02%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -5.09%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-05 16:25
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -8.61%E -6.02%K -20.02%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -5.09%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-05 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.50I 66.67%NM 64.87%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.13%2.8%2026-03-05 18:00
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%3.0%2026-03-05 17:55