The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Philadelphia Phillies v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 52.95%1.89fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.818%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.81%52.87%53.25%54.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.801.8657.47%55.54%55.56%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 47.05%2.13fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.97%47.13%46.75%48.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.012.0851.28%49.56%49.75%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 52.95%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 47.05%. For Philadelphia Phillies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.86, with an expected value of -1.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -1.52%E -0.818%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 17:00
Bovada🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -2.58%E -1.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -6.36%E -3.20%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-13 16:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.11%E -1.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-13 13:35
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.64%E -2.00%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 13:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -4.17%E -2.30%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.95%E -2.45%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 15:39
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 15:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 15:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 15:25
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 15:23
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 15:25
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 13:34
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 13:34
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.24%E -4.23%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-13 13:35
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.24%E -4.23%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-13 15:24
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -2.13%E -1.02%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-13 14:14
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -2.13%E -1.02%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-13 14:15
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -8.24%E -4.23%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 16:10
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.87%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-13 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%3.1%2026-03-13 16:50
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%3.6%2026-03-13 17:00
Novig◎1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%4.0%2026-03-13 16:40