The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Yankees (Local)

Prediction 58.77%1.70fair odd
EV -0.086%
Edge -0.051%
Kelly -0.123%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.52%58.59%58.79%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.621.621.7064.10%61.65%61.92%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Twins (Visit)

Prediction 41.23%2.43fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.41%41.21%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.302.3845.45%43.59%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Yankees (Local): 58.77%; Minnesota Twins (Visit): 41.23%. For New York Yankees (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.701. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.700, with an expected value of -0.086%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -0.086%E -0.051%K -0.123%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -8.89%E -4.02%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.85%E -1.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -5.18%E -2.25%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-05 17:35
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.85%E -1.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.30%E -4.23%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 17:35
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.02%E -1.83%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.18%E -2.25%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 17:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.79%E -2.96%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.12%E -1.33%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-05 14:45
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.12%E -1.33%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 14:45
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -6.55%E -4.12%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -1.88%E -0.790%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 14:49
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.55%E -4.12%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.24%E -3.22%K -5.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.31%E -5.33%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.18%E -2.25%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 16:25
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.31%E -5.33%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.18%E -2.25%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 60.52%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.48%-1.1%2026-03-05 18:00
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%3.0%2026-03-05 18:00