The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Mets v Washington Nationals

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 22:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 56.63%1.77fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.01%56.57%56.63%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.681.691.7261.35%59.52%59.35%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Nationals (Visit)

Prediction 43.37%2.31fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%43.43%43.37%43.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.202.202.2546.51%45.52%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Mets (Local): 56.63%; Washington Nationals (Visit): 43.37%. For Washington Nationals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -2.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -2.60%E -1.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -5.02%E -2.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 21:15
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.16%E -1.85%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.45%E -2.50%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-16 21:02
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.16%E -1.85%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.45%E -2.50%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-16 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.73%E -2.19%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.72%E -1.67%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-16 20:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.73%E -2.19%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.72%E -1.67%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-16 20:50
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.73%E -2.19%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 21:45
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.42%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-16 20:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.42%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-16 21:44
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.30%E -2.54%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 18:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.86%E -2.89%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 21:50
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.86%E -2.89%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-16 21:50
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 21:45
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 18:39
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 21:45
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 21:45
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.56%E -3.98%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 21:45
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -7.69%E -4.72%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -5.89%E -2.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-16 18:55
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -7.69%E -4.72%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -5.89%E -2.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-16 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.89%1.75I 57.14%NM 57.11%0.1%2026-03-16 22:05
ProphetX◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%2.5%2026-03-16 22:05
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%2.8%2026-03-16 22:05