The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

New York Mets v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 17:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 61.52%1.63fair odd
EV -0.338%
Edge -0.208%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.19%61.27%61.57%62.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.561.561.6266.23%64.03%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 38.48%2.60fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.736%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.96%38.73%38.43%40.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.472.492.5542.55%40.47%40.16%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Mets (Local): 61.52%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 38.48%. For New York Mets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -0.338%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -0.338%E -0.208%K -0.545%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -8.80%E -3.71%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 16:35
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -0.338%E -0.208%K -0.545%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -9.57%E -4.07%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 17:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -2.80%E -1.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -3.42%E -1.36%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-10 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -2.80%E -1.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -3.42%E -1.36%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-10 17:05
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -3.41%E -2.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -1.88%E -0.736%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-10 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.03%E -2.58%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.88%E -0.736%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 16:25
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.03%E -2.58%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-10 15:15
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.03%E -2.58%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-10 16:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.03%E -2.58%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-10 15:10
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.03%E -2.58%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-10 14:49
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.03%E -2.58%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.72%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 15:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -4.64%E -3.00%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.95%E -2.01%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.26%E -3.42%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.57%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 15:15
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.84%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.72%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 15:15
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.87%E -3.84%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 17:05
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -7.10%E -4.71%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.72%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-03-10 17:05
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.1%2026-03-10 16:35
ProphetX◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%2.5%2026-03-10 16:55