The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Mets v Houston Astros

Kickoff: 2026-02-24 18:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 59.25%1.69fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -3.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.59%59.25%59.27%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.611.611.6562.89%62.01%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Astros (Visit)

Prediction 40.75%2.45fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.921%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%40.75%40.73%41.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.352.4044.44%42.64%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Mets (Local): 59.25%; Houston Astros (Visit): 40.75%. For Houston Astros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.23%E -1.35%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.25%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-24 17:50
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.01%E -2.47%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.84%E -1.63%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-24 16:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.01%E -2.47%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.25%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-24 13:39
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -2.62%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-24 17:40
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.25%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-24 17:40
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.25%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-24 17:50
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.66%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-24 13:39
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.06%E -2.17%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.60%E -2.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.06%E -2.17%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 16:55
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.19%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.21%E -0.921%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-24 18:00
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.79%E -3.64%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-24 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.