The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Minnesota Twins v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Prediction 54.11%1.85fair odd
EV -0.972%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.34%53.94%54.26%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.771.771.8358.48%56.42%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 45.89%2.18fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.06%45.74%47.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.062.1050.00%48.36%48.54%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Twins (Local): 54.11%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 45.89%. For Minnesota Twins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -0.972%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -0.972%E -0.531%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -7.77%E -3.87%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -1.51%E -0.831%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -5.93%E -2.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -3.14%E -1.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -6.39%E -3.13%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 17:00
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -3.14%E -1.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -6.39%E -3.13%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 16:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 12:42
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 16:18
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 16:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -5.47%E -2.66%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 15:18
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.93%E -2.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 12:45
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.22%E -2.38%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.23%E -4.11%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 16:20
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.30%E -3.03%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.64%E -1.73%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 12:44
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.84%E -3.36%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.93%E -2.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 16:10
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.47%E -4.37%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.93%E -2.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%0.6%2026-03-14 17:00
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-03-14 16:55
Novig◎1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%4.3%2026-03-14 17:00