The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Minnesota Twins v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Prediction 59.46%1.68fair odd
EV -0.709%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%59.45%59.34%60.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.611.6764.52%62.28%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 40.54%2.47fair odd
EV -0.666%
Edge -0.272%
Kelly -0.459%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.66%40.55%40.66%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.352.4544.44%42.62%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Twins (Local): 59.46%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 40.54%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.666%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.709%E -0.425%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.75%E -2.93%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-16 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.90%E -1.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.75%E -2.93%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-16 13:40
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.68%E -2.27%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.72%E -2.01%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 13:02
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.68%E -2.27%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.72%E -2.01%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 13:10
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.68%E -2.27%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.72%E -2.01%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 13:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.68%E -2.27%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.75%E -2.93%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-16 13:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.28%E -2.66%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.666%E -0.272%K -0.459%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-16 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.28%E -2.66%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.666%E -0.272%K -0.459%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-16 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -4.28%E -2.66%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV -2.29%E -0.949%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-16 17:00
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.28%E -2.66%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.72%E -2.01%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 13:10
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.28%E -2.66%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.72%E -2.01%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 16:35
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.87%E -3.04%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.69%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-16 16:57
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.87%E -3.04%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.32%E -1.83%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 13:10
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.47%E -3.44%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.75%E -2.93%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-16 13:10
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.47%E -3.44%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -8.77%E -3.90%K -7.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 16:05
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.65%E -4.24%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.75%E -2.93%K -5.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 16:10
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -7.84%E -5.06%K -14.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.53%E -2.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-16 14:25
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -7.84%E -5.06%K -14.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.53%E -2.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-16 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-03-16 17:00
ProphetX◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.5%2026-03-16 17:00
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%4.0%2026-03-16 17:00