The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Prediction 52.54%1.90fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.724%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%52.28%52.59%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.821.801.9355.56%54.83%55.56%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 47.46%2.11fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%47.72%47.41%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.992.002.0553.19%50.31%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Twins (Local): 52.54%; Detroit Tigers (Visit): 47.46%. For Minnesota Twins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV +1.40%E +0.724%K +1.50%G +0.021%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -10.77%E -5.73%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV +1.40%E +0.724%K +1.50%G +0.021%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -10.77%E -5.73%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -3.65%E -1.80%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-11 16:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 14:25
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 14:39
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.02%E -3.04%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 14:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.02%E -3.04%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 14:35
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.38%E -2.41%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.13%E -2.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-11 16:14
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 17:00
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:30
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:30
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-11 14:25
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 16:10
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 16:30
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 15:05
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.35%E -4.89%K -10.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%1.9%2026-03-11 16:45
ProphetX◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%2.5%2026-03-11 17:00
Novig◎1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%4.1%2026-03-11 17:00