The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Prediction 53.54%1.87fair odd
EV +0.119%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.137%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%53.29%53.58%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.771.8757.47%55.99%56.50%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta Braves (Visit)

Prediction 46.46%2.15fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.71%46.42%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.042.1051.28%49.00%49.14%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Twins (Local): 53.54%; Atlanta Braves (Visit): 46.46%. For Minnesota Twins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.868. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.870, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.119%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.119%E +0.064%K +0.137%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.40%E -4.82%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 22:59
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.09%E -1.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -6.15%E -3.04%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 22:59
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.09%E -1.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -6.15%E -3.04%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 23:00
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -3.63%E -2.02%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.83%E -1.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 22:40
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.23%E -2.96%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 21:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.23%E -2.96%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 21:09
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.23%E -2.96%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.76%E -2.32%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 21:10
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.23%E -2.96%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.08%E -3.54%K -7.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 21:05
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.31%E -3.60%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 21:10
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.84%E -3.93%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.08%E -3.54%K -7.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 22:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-03-06 22:59
Novig◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%3.0%2026-03-06 23:00