The School of Odds
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Milwaukee Brewers v San Diego Padres

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Milwaukee Brewers (Local)

Prediction 57.46%1.74fair odd
EV -0.022%
Edge -0.013%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.92%57.38%57.44%59.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.671.671.7462.11%59.92%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 42.54%2.35fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.875%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.15%42.62%42.56%45.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.242.222.4047.17%44.72%45.05%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Milwaukee Brewers (Local): 57.46%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 42.54%. For San Diego Padres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +2.10%E +0.875%K +1.50%G +0.031%3.8%2026-03-21 19:10
BetAnything🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -4.62%E -2.78%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -1.30%E -0.562%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 20:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.30%E -0.562%K -0.988%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 19:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 19:09
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 18:04
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 18:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.89%E -1.71%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-21 18:04
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.62%E -2.78%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.71%E -2.10%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 18:05
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 18:04
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 19:08
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 18:04
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -1.75%E -1.02%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -6.83%E -3.12%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 19:34
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -6.83%E -3.12%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 19:19
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.54%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 19:14
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.92%E -4.27%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.54%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 19:04
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -0.022%E -0.013%K -0.030%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -9.81%E -4.63%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 18:00
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -0.022%E -0.013%K -0.030%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -9.81%E -4.63%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-03-21 19:29
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-03-21 20:00
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%4.5%2026-03-21 19:59