The School of Odds
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Miami Marlins v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 17:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 53.15%1.88fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.20%53.25%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.801.8257.47%55.82%55.56%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 46.85%2.13fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.771%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.74%46.80%46.75%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1051.28%49.07%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 53.15%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 46.85%. For St. Louis Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.26%E -1.79%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 16:59
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.26%E -1.79%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.80%E -2.10%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.49%E -1.70%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-08 15:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 15:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 13:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 15:35
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 14:55
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 15:36
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-08 13:09
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.65%E -4.43%K -9.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 15:34
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.43%E -2.17%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 13:44
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.92%E -3.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.62%E -0.771%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 13:54
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.92%E -3.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.62%E -0.771%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 14:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.45%E -3.67%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.02%E -1.46%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 15:39
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.30%E -3.15%K -6.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-03-08 17:05
Novig◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%2.9%2026-03-08 15:00