The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Marlins v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 18:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 46.88%2.13fair odd
EV +0.789%
Edge +0.367%
Kelly +0.686%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%46.65%47.01%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.032.012.1550.00%49.19%49.75%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 53.12%1.88fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.35%52.99%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.801.8357.47%55.83%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 46.88%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 53.12%. For Miami Marlins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.789%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +0.789%E +0.367%K +0.686%G +0.005%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -7.57%E -4.35%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 17:14
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -2.02%E -0.968%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -4.91%E -2.74%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-28 17:29
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.90%E -1.90%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.38%E -2.43%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 16:55
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.31%E -2.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.85%E -2.13%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.31%E -2.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.85%E -2.13%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 14:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.79%E -1.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 14:15
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.32%E -1.82%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 14:15
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.38%E -2.43%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 14:15
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.98%E -3.38%K -7.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 17:24
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.24%E -3.12%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.57%E -4.35%K -10.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.