The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Marlins v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 41.27%2.42fair odd
EV +0.285%
Edge +0.117%
Kelly +0.199%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%41.28%41.33%43.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.4345.45%43.31%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 58.73%1.70fair odd
EV -0.745%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.56%58.72%58.67%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.631.621.6962.89%61.43%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 41.27%; New York Mets (Visit): 58.73%. For Miami Marlins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.285%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV +0.285%E +0.117%K +0.199%G +0.001%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -6.62%E -4.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 14:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.953%E -0.397%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.953%E -0.397%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 14:19
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.09%E -1.88%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 15:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 15:57
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.25%E -1.83%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 16:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.08%E -2.21%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.09%E -1.88%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 14:14
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.08%E -2.21%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.27%E -2.62%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 14:24
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.08%E -2.21%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.27%E -2.62%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 14:24
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.08%E -2.21%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 15:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.08%E -2.21%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 14:19
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.08%E -2.21%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 14:14
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.14%E -3.17%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 15:00
ReBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.14%E -3.17%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 16:14
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.14%E -3.17%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.62%E -4.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 15:24
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -8.79%E -3.98%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -0.745%E -0.441%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -9.21%E -4.19%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -0.745%E -0.441%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%1.9%2026-03-22 16:55
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-03-22 17:05
Novig◎2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%4.5%2026-03-22 16:55