The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Miami Marlins v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 17:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 45.47%2.20fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.36%45.45%45.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.092.102.1548.78%47.75%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 54.53%1.83fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.01%54.64%54.55%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.751.7859.88%57.49%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 45.47%; New York Mets (Visit): 54.53%. For Miami Marlins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -2.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.24%E -1.04%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.12%E -2.94%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-17 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.15%E -1.48%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.57%E -2.61%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.15%E -1.48%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.57%E -2.61%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 15:35
BetAnything🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.15%E -1.48%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.57%E -2.61%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 15:35
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.48%E -1.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 15:05
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.48%E -1.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 15:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.48%E -1.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 15:10
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.57%E -2.61%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-17 15:10
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.12%E -2.94%K -6.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 15:05
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.93%E -5.35%K -13.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 16:40
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.93%E -5.35%K -13.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 16:40
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -4.97%E -2.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -2.93%E -1.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-17 16:55
Bovada🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.97%E -2.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.02%E -2.29%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.43%E -2.61%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.02%E -2.29%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 14:33
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.12%E -2.94%K -6.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 15:05
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.12%E -2.94%K -6.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 14:35
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.75%E -3.95%K -9.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 16:10
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.84%E -4.64%K -11.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-17 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%2.9%2026-03-17 16:50
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%3.2%2026-03-17 16:30
Novig◎2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%4.0%2026-03-17 16:25