The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Marlins v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 46.74%2.14fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.876%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.70%46.68%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.032.052.1052.36%49.16%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 53.26%1.88fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.30%53.32%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.791.8357.47%55.93%56.02%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 46.74%; New York Mets (Visit): 53.26%. For Miami Marlins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.84%E -0.876%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.80%E -3.89%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 16:25
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.84%E -0.876%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.80%E -3.89%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 16:25
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.71%E -1.80%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.74%E -3.24%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 19:20
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -4.18%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -3.07%E -1.69%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-06 23:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.18%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.14%E -2.30%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-06 19:20
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.18%E -2.04%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.74%E -3.24%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 19:20
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.58%E -2.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.07%E -1.69%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 21:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.54%E -1.39%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 20:15
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.33%E -4.21%K -9.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 19:25
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.72%E -5.61%K -11.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.54%E -1.39%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-03-06 23:20
Novig◎2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%3.4%2026-03-06 23:00