The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Marlins v Houston Astros

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV +0.152%
Edge +0.069%
Kelly +0.127%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%45.43%45.39%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.092.092.2048.78%47.87%47.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Astros (Visit)

Prediction 54.48%1.84fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.57%54.61%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.741.731.8058.82%57.57%57.97%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 45.52%; Houston Astros (Visit): 54.48%. For Miami Marlins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.197. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.200, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.152%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +0.152%E +0.069%K +0.127%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.85%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-05 18:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.40%E -2.10%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.58%E -2.02%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 16:00
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.40%E -2.10%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.67%E -2.67%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 15:59
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.40%E -2.10%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.21%E -3.00%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 16:00
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.40%E -2.10%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.85%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 18:05
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.03%E -1.70%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 17:15
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.94%E -1.08%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-05 17:45
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.85%E -4.00%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 17:45
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 16:30
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-03-05 18:05
Novig◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%1.5%2026-03-05 18:05