The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Marlins v Houston Astros

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 18:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 53.90%1.86fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.90%53.92%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.771.771.8057.14%56.37%56.50%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Astros (Visit)

Prediction 46.10%2.17fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.10%46.08%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.082.1051.28%48.66%48.19%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Marlins (Local): 53.90%; Houston Astros (Visit): 46.10%. For Miami Marlins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -2.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -2.99%E -1.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -4.56%E -2.21%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-25 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.99%E -1.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.49%E -2.68%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-25 17:05
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.99%E -1.66%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.10%E -5.18%K -10.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 17:04
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.60%E -2.60%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.18%E -1.51%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-25 15:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.60%E -2.60%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.18%E -1.51%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-25 14:59
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.60%E -2.60%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.49%E -2.68%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-25 13:45
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -4.60%E -2.60%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -10.10%E -5.18%K -10.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-25 17:55
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.14%E -2.92%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.10%E -1.97%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 14:59
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.68%E -3.25%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.18%E -1.51%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-25 18:05
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.68%E -3.25%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.18%E -1.51%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-25 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.