The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Los Angeles Dodgers v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Local)

Prediction 60.39%1.66fair odd
EV -0.961%
Edge -0.586%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.79%60.23%60.40%61.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.591.581.6463.69%63.05%63.09%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 39.61%2.52fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.550%
Kelly -0.919%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.97%39.77%39.60%41.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.392.402.4943.48%41.75%41.67%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Los Angeles Dodgers (Local): 60.39%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 39.61%. For Los Angeles Dodgers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.64, with an expected value of -0.961%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79%EV -0.961%E -0.586%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21%EV -7.31%E -3.12%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-06 23:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.98%E -2.50%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.37%E -0.550%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 20:05
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -3.98%E -2.50%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.14%E -1.71%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-06 21:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.98%E -2.50%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 21:28
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.98%E -2.50%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 20:05
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.58%E -2.90%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 21:19
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.19%E -3.30%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 00:59
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.19%E -3.30%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 01:00
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.19%E -3.30%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 21:15
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.19%E -3.30%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.90%E -3.87%K -6.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 22:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%2.1%2026-03-07 00:35
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%2.8%2026-03-07 00:59