The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kansas City Royals v Texas Rangers

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 50.59%1.98fair odd
EV +0.166%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%50.50%50.65%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.881.881.9854.95%53.19%53.33%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Rangers (Visit)

Prediction 49.41%2.02fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.589%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.64%49.50%49.35%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.942.0054.64%51.84%51.68%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 50.59%; Texas Rangers (Visit): 49.41%. For Kansas City Royals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.977. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.980, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.166%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV +0.166%E +0.084%K +0.170%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 00:40
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.36%E -1.22%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.64%E -2.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 00:40
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.38%E -1.77%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.58%E -5.23%K -11.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 00:35
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.39%E -2.32%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.64%E -2.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 20:05
FanDuel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.89%E -2.60%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.14%E -2.14%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 20:10
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.65%E -1.87%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 20:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.65%E -1.87%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 20:05
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.62%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 22:50
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.93%E -4.36%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.18%E -0.589%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 20:45
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.93%E -4.36%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.18%E -0.589%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%2.9%2026-03-06 01:00
Novig◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%3.6%2026-03-06 00:55