The School of Odds
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Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 55.97%1.79fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.06%55.88%55.96%56.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.711.7459.88%58.44%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 44.03%2.27fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.59%44.12%44.04%44.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.142.152.2047.62%46.63%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 55.97%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 44.03%. For Kansas City Royals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -2.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.60%E -1.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.35%E -2.49%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 16:35
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.16%E -1.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.67%E -3.14%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 16:00
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.16%E -1.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.67%E -3.14%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.28%E -2.50%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.14%E -1.43%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-21 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.28%E -2.50%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.35%E -2.49%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 15:50
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.28%E -2.50%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.55%E -3.59%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.84%E -2.85%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.14%E -1.43%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-21 16:25
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.84%E -2.85%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.91%E -2.27%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 15:55
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.52%E -3.91%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.55%E -3.59%K -6.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.