The School of Odds
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Kansas City Royals v Milwaukee Brewers

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 56.71%1.76fair odd
EV +0.380%
Edge +0.214%
Kelly +0.493%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.91%56.58%56.77%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.701.691.7760.61%58.89%59.17%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 43.29%2.31fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.735%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%43.42%43.23%46.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.3548.78%45.83%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 56.71%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visit): 43.29%. For Milwaukee Brewers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.43%E -3.89%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.73%E +0.735%K +1.28%G +0.022%3.2%2026-03-01 19:44
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.43%E -3.89%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.60%E -1.16%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 19:39
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.16%E -2.46%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.47%E -1.55%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-01 19:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.02%E -1.77%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-01 18:29
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.59%E -2.11%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 18:24
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.72%E -2.81%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 18:34
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 18:29
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV +0.380%E +0.214%K +0.493%G +0.002%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -10.39%E -5.02%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 18:24
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV +0.380%E +0.214%K +0.493%G +0.002%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -10.39%E -5.02%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 18:24
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -4.16%E -2.46%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -11.26%E -5.49%K -10.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-01 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-03-01 18:24
Novig◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.37%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.63%1.4%2026-03-01 19:50