The School of Odds
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Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 46.28%2.16fair odd
EV -0.490%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.426%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%46.22%46.60%47.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.052.1550.00%48.57%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 53.72%1.86fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.59%53.78%53.40%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.781.771.8357.47%56.30%56.34%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 46.28%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 53.72%. For Kansas City Royals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.490%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.490%E -0.228%K -0.426%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.53%E -3.76%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-09 16:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -1.42%E -0.664%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -6.00%E -3.43%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-09 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -1.42%E -0.664%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -6.00%E -3.43%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-09 19:40
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.80%E -1.34%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.92%E -2.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-09 16:25
BetAnything🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.73%E -1.79%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.39%E -2.46%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 19:39
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.66%E -2.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.92%E -2.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 19:38
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.31%E -1.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 16:04
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.85%E -2.15%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-09 19:09
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.85%E -2.15%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-09 19:09
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.53%E -3.76%K -8.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-09 16:05
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.58%E -2.74%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.39%E -2.46%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-09 16:04
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -6.04%E -2.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -1.70%E -0.929%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-09 19:44
Bovada🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.51%E -3.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.24%E -1.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-09 19:44
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.43%E -3.72%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.31%E -1.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-09 16:05
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.43%E -3.72%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.92%E -2.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-09 19:09
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.43%E -3.72%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.53%E -3.76%K -8.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-09 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-03-09 19:50
Novig◎2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%2.8%2026-03-09 19:50