The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Kansas City Royals v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 54.56%1.83fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%54.57%54.55%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.751.741.7858.48%57.18%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 45.44%2.20fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%45.43%45.45%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.102.102.1548.78%47.69%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 54.56%; Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit): 45.44%. For Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -2.88%E -1.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76%EV -4.12%E -1.95%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 01:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 00:29
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:30
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 00:59
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 23:10
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 23:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 00:34
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.52%E -2.58%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 00:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 00:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 00:28
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 00:29
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 00:30
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -2.76%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 00:59
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 00:45
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 00:30
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 00:29
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 00:30
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.70%E -3.92%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 00:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-03-13 22:25
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-03-14 01:00
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72%1.4%2026-03-14 01:00